Monday, April 20, 2020

Draft Successes and Failures: Diving Into the Numbers Part 1-2014


           In this entry I will layout the results of an analytical look into each team's past drafts. I started with 2014, because originally my intention was to see how Jason Licht compared with his peers. This undertaking is much bigger than I anticipated, and has somewhat become an obsession. It has taken six days to compile data just for the years 2014 and 2015. I intend to take this up to the current draft, backtrack to 2002, then update future drafts.

          With that said, these results will be fluid for eight seasons. The model I have created assigns points to draft picks for games, games started and longevity with their drafted team. A draft pick is given points based on years of service with the team that drafted them. The amount of points is dependent upon which round they were selected. A high draft pick can be assigned negative points for flaming out early in their career, or for being a total bust. Late round draft picks can be given bonus points for being productive longer than average late rounders historically are. Draft picks also receive a small amount of bonus points for Pro Bowls, All-Pro and a 50 point bonus for League MVP

          I will list each team's yearly scores, and their running totals in future installments. As stated above, these results are fluid for eight seasons. Meaning that after the 2020 NFL season, New England's and Miami's 2014 scores will no longer be 314 and 631.

          Las Vegas and Jacksonville blew away the others with their 2014 draft scores of 1019 and 952 respectively. New Orleans, who has been a good drafting team, just totally screwed the pooch in 2014 with a miserable score of 74. Scrolling down to the bottom will give you the rankings.

2014
New England - 314
Miami - 631
New York Jets - 313
Buffalo - 412

Baltimore - 605
Pittsburgh - 542
Cleveland - 465
Cincinnati - 539

Indianapolis - 241
Jacksonville - 952
Tennessee - 693
Houston - 873

Kansas City - 643
Las Vegas - 1019
Los Angeles - 196
Denver - 586

Philadelphia - 370
New York - 546
Dallas - 662
Washington - 612

Green Bay - 869
Minnesota - 615
Chicago - 833
Detroit - 523

Tampa Bay - 452
New Orleans - 74
Carolina - 495
Atlanta - 739

Seattle - 370
San Fransisco - 597
Arizona - 478
Los Angeles - 730

1. Las Vegas- 1019
2. Jacksonville - 952
3. Houston - 873
4. Green Bay - 869
5. Chicago - 833
6. Atlanta - 739
7. L.A. Rams - 730
8. Tennessee - 693
9. Dallas - 662
10. Kansas City - 643
11. Miami - 631
12. Minnesota - 615
13. Washington - 612
14. Baltimore - 605
15. San Fransisco - 597
16. Denver - 586
17. N.Y. Giants - 546
18. Pittsburgh - 542
19. Cincinnati - 539
20. Detroit - 523
21. Carolina - 495
22. Arizona - 478
23. Cleveland - 465
24. Tampa Bay - 452
25. Buffalo - 412
26. Philadelphia - 370
26. Seattle - 370
28. New England - 314
29. N.Y. Jets - 313
30. Indianapolis - 241
31. L.A. Chargers - 196
32. New Orleans - 74

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