Draft Successes and Failures: Diving Into the Numbers Part 2-2015

 

   
          The J-E-T-S put together back-to-back bad drafts in 2014 and 2015. After having placed 29th in 2014, they followed that up with a 32nd place finish in 2015, also putting them in 32nd place for 2014/2015 combined rankings. Minnesota and the L.A. Rams put together two good drafts in a row, while New England rebounded from a bad 2014 to 3rd in 2015.

*an explanation of the scoring is laid out in Part 1.

3. New England - 634
17. Miami - 471
32. New York - 242
30. Buffalo - 262

15. Baltimore - 488
16. Pittsburgh - 480
20. Cleveland - 433
14. Cincinnati - 491

26. Indianapolis - 354
11. Jacksonville - 529
29. Tennessee -  294
22. Houston - 396

5. Kansas City - 599
21. Las Vegas - 398
10. Los Angeles - 544
19. Denver - 441

31. Philadelphia - 248
25. New York - 370
18. Dallas - 464
13. Washington - 504

24. Green Bay - 378
1. Minnesota - 813
23. Chicago - 378
27. Detroit - 346

12. New Orleans - 527
4. Tampa Bay - 616
7. Carolina - 557
6. Atlanta - 589

28. Seattle - 303
9. San Fransisco - 548
8. Arizona - 551
2. Los Angeles - 662

2014/2015
1. Jacksonville - 1481
2. Minnesota - 1428
3. Las Vegas - 1417
4. L.A. Rams - 1392
5. Atlanta - 1328
6. Houston - 1269
7. Green Bay - 1247
8. Kansas City - 1242
9. Chicago - 1211
10. San Fransisco - 1145
11. Dallas - 1126
12. Washington - 1116
13. Miami - 1102
14. Baltimore - 1093
15. Tampa Bay - 1063
16. Carolina - 1052
17. Cincinnati - 1030
18. Arizona - 1029
19. Denver - 1027
20. Pittsburgh - 1022
21. Tennessee - 987
22. New England - 948
23. N.Y. Giants - 916
24. Cleveland - 898
25. Detroit - 869
26. L.A. Chargers - 740
27. Buffalo - 674
28. Seattle - 673
29. Philadelphia - 618
30. New Orleans - 601
31. Indianapolis - 595
32. N.Y. Jets - 555

Draft Successes and Failures: Diving Into the Numbers Part 1-2014

           In this entry I will layout the results of an analytical look into each team's past drafts. I started with 2014, because originally my intention was to see how Jason Licht compared with his peers. This undertaking is much bigger than I anticipated, and has somewhat become an obsession. It has taken six days to compile data just for the years 2014 and 2015. I intend to take this up to the current draft, backtrack to 2002, then update future drafts.

          With that said, these results will be fluid for eight seasons. The model I have created assigns points to draft picks for games, games started and longevity with their drafted team. A draft pick is given points based on years of service with the team that drafted them. The amount of points is dependent upon which round they were selected. A high draft pick can be assigned negative points for flaming out early in their career, or for being a total bust. Late round draft picks can be given bonus points for being productive longer than average late rounders historically are. Draft picks also receive a small amount of bonus points for Pro Bowls, All-Pro and a 50 point bonus for League MVP

          I will list each team's yearly scores, and their running totals in future installments. As stated above, these results are fluid for eight seasons. Meaning that after the 2020 NFL season, New England's and Miami's 2014 scores will no longer be 314 and 631.

          Las Vegas and Jacksonville blew away the others with their 2014 draft scores of 1019 and 952 respectively. New Orleans, who has been a good drafting team, just totally screwed the pooch in 2014 with a miserable score of 74. Scrolling down to the bottom will give you the rankings.

2014
New England - 314
Miami - 631
New York Jets - 313
Buffalo - 412

Baltimore - 605
Pittsburgh - 542
Cleveland - 465
Cincinnati - 539

Indianapolis - 241
Jacksonville - 952
Tennessee - 693
Houston - 873

Kansas City - 643
Las Vegas - 1019
Los Angeles - 196
Denver - 586

Philadelphia - 370
New York - 546
Dallas - 662
Washington - 612

Green Bay - 869
Minnesota - 615
Chicago - 833
Detroit - 523

Tampa Bay - 452
New Orleans - 74
Carolina - 495
Atlanta - 739

Seattle - 370
San Fransisco - 597
Arizona - 478
Los Angeles - 730

1. Las Vegas- 1019
2. Jacksonville - 952
3. Houston - 873
4. Green Bay - 869
5. Chicago - 833
6. Atlanta - 739
7. L.A. Rams - 730
8. Tennessee - 693
9. Dallas - 662
10. Kansas City - 643
11. Miami - 631
12. Minnesota - 615
13. Washington - 612
14. Baltimore - 605
15. San Fransisco - 597
16. Denver - 586
17. N.Y. Giants - 546
18. Pittsburgh - 542
19. Cincinnati - 539
20. Detroit - 523
21. Carolina - 495
22. Arizona - 478
23. Cleveland - 465
24. Tampa Bay - 452
25. Buffalo - 412
26. Philadelphia - 370
26. Seattle - 370
28. New England - 314
29. N.Y. Jets - 313
30. Indianapolis - 241
31. L.A. Chargers - 196
32. New Orleans - 74

Do Some Fans give Licht a Bad Rap?

          Recently NFL Network aired a piece on the topic of NFL GM draft trends. With that information I've compiled a list of the current GM's success in the draft as it relates to the total number of players they have drafted during their tenure, and how many of those players were pro bowlers.

          I was surprised to see where Jason Licht fell on this list, because of continuous rhetoric and whining by some Buccs fans in forums. There have been calls to fire Licht for a few years now, of which I personally have disagreed with. Has Jason missed on some picks? Yes. Has Jason made some terrible picks? Yes. All GMs do, and at a pretty comparable frequency, outside of a handful at the ends of the spectrum. Unfortunately many fans are crippled with proximity bias when assessing their favorite team, because the closeness of attention they pay to said team. Sure we as fans hear about other teams' great draft successes and their great draft busts, but the difference lies in those teams' under the radar draftees we don't hear about.

          The positively natured fan will over praise their GM's body of work, and the angry, negatively natured fan will call for their GM's head with every move made that doesn't produce a Hall of Famer. The goal of every GM is to achieve 10% pro bowlers of the players they've drafted. Jason Licht falls in the top ⅓ of the GM's in the League, which in my opinion is pretty good.

The list below is comprised of current GM's with more than one draft during their tenure.

      GM                            Team   Plyrs     PB'rs    %
1. Ryan Pace-                Chi         32         5        15.6
2. Mickey Loomis-       N.O.       115       17      14.8
3. Thomas Dimitroff-  Atl          87        12       14.0
4. Rick Spielman-         Min       120       16      13.3
5. Jerry Jones-               Dal        279       36      13.0
6. Kevin Colbert-          Pit         161       19       11.8
7. David Caldwell-        Jax         53        6        11.3
8. Tom Telesco-            LA C       46        5         10.9
9. Marty Hurney- Car(2 stints) 105      11      10.5
10. John Schneider-     Sea         97        10      9.7
11. Jason Licht-            Tam        42        4        9.5
12a. Dave Gettleman- NYG/Car 44       3         9.1
12b. Bill Belichik-         N.E.       176      16       9.1
14. Brett Veach-            K.C.        12        1         8.3
15. Howie Roseman-   Phi         80        6         7.5
16. John Lynch-            S.F.         27       2         7.4
17. Les Snead-              LA R       70       5         7.1
18a. Chris Ballard-       Ind         29       2         6.9
18b. Jon Robinson-      Ten         29       2         6.9
20. Bruce Allen-           Was        88       6         6.8
21. Bill O'Brien-            Tex        45        3         6.7
22a. Mike Brown-        Cle        258      16        6.2
22b. Brandon Bean-    Buf        16        1         6.2
24. Steve Keim-            Ari         53        3         5.7
25. Chris Grier-            Mia        29       1*        3.0*
26. Bob Quinn-             Det        34        1         2.9
27. John Elway-            Den       61       1         1.6
28. Brian Gutekunst-   G.B.       19       0         0.0

*Grier drafted 2 players who earned pro bowls after he traded them away. If you include those, 3 players for 10.3%

The Past Is A Matter of Perspective

          Well folks, it has been a very long time since I've thrown some letters together to make words, and some words together to create sentences here on this blog. Life changes, responsibility changes, workload changes and everyone's most hated change.....less spare time for fun things has unfortunately been the reason for not partaking in this hobby. Thanks to the Corona Virus sweeping the planet and Social Distancing guidelines, most people have a little more spare time on their hands, and that includes me. So let's see give it a shot.

          Buccaneer fans are a fickle bunch, a polarized bunch, a divided bunch. No matter what the topic at hand, Buccaneer fans are usually split down the middle, feverishly arguing with their fellow fans. It doesn't matter what the topic at hand is, you can guarantee the fanbase will be split. I've never been a fan of another team, so I've never had the experience of discussing topics of a shared love with any other fan base. With my having been born and raised in Rhode Island for 31 years, then relocating to Kansas City, MO a little more than 16 years ago, I have the experience of being an outside observer of two different fanbases. I can tell you one thing for sure, I've never noticed division or infighting about almost every single topic about their teams from Patriot and Chiefs fans. Certainly not like Buccaneer fans.

          So that brings me to the point of this blog entry. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers existence has two distinctly separate eras. First was 1976 through 1996 when the team donned creamsicle(Florida orange) and red, with the winking pirate Bucco Bruce on the sides of the helmet. That was followed by 1997 through present time for which the team has been colored in pewter and red, with a pirate attack flag on the sides of the helmet. Argument topics come and go. They usually pertain to a player on the roster, a draft selection, a coach, a general manager and even the ownership. They may stem from offensive or defensive scheme, offensive or defensive play calls, or when and when not to call a time out. However, the longest lasting argument is and will always be creamsicle and red vs. pewter and red.

          Some fans love and respect the old uniforms and logo. Its sentimental value tugs on their heart strings. It brings up powerful feelings of joy when the Tampa Bay area was selected as one of the new homes for an NFL franchise. It reminds them of their childhood and their young innocence watching their new found heroes play the game of football. For some it's respect like the adage and Maya Angelo quote, "You can't really know where you are going until you know where you have been." Respect and understanding for the past are paramount throughout most walks of life.

          Some fans despise the old threads and winking pirate because it brings back feelings of sadness. It brings back memories of losing, of 0-26, brown paper bags, the Yucs and Johnny Carson's almost nightly  insults of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Those colors and logo for this group of fans reminds them of the harrassment they received from other teams' fans. The harrassment and insults Buccs players received from players on other teams' rosters. They want to forget those memories and feelings, but they can't. They hate that they can't forget, therefore they hate what reminds them.

          For me personally when I see the old uniforms it reminds me of how this little boy from Rhode Island fell in love with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. My paren......errrrrrr Santa Claus brought me an NFL dartboard with velcro darts. Around the perimeter of this dart board were the helmets from all the NFL teams. As you can imagine being from the northeast, the Buccs were hardly ever on TV. That one Sunday though,  when my little brother and I were wrestling around in the living room while the TV was on and I looked up. There they were, playing at the J-E-T-S. I yelled out, "the team with the wicked awesome helmets!" I was hooked for life. No pirate pun intended. On an unrelated side note, with brothers sometimes being competitive, obviously my brother was rooting for "the green team," only because big brother was rooting for the other team. To this day, my little brother is still a J-E-T-S fan.

The biggest reason why I look at the past uniforms with favor is because it reminds me of how the Tampa Bay Buccaneers accomplished something that has never been or will ever be done. You see, a lot of people don't realize what a horrible position the Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks were put in when they entered the league as expansion teams. The rules are very different now for expansion teams. Current NFL teams protect 5 players on their rosters, and expansion teams can pluck whomever they want from any team that is not protected. Expansion teams also have the luxury of Free Agency which didn't exist in 1976. The Buccs roster at that time was made up of a bunch of players nobody else wanted on their teams, and it showed on the field as evidenced by their 0-26 start. Their truly amazing and miraculous turnaround is what gives me pride in those old uniforms and Bucco Bruce. From the day the Buccs broke their 0-26 streak of ineptness, it only took them just 34 games to go from the laughing stock of the world, to coming within one game of the Holy Grail that is playing in the Super Bowl. The same team just 34 games previously, that couldn't get out of their own way was 9 points from playing the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Super Bowl, when they held the Los Angeles Rams without a touchdown in the NFC Championship game. The LA Rams could only muster 3 field goals against the team that not too long before that, was mostly made up of men who wouldn't have been NFL players had the NFL not expanded to 28 teams. That is what I think of, and the joy that comes with it when I see the creamsicle uniforms and Bucco Bruce.