Draft Successes and Failures: Diving Into the Numbers Part 3-2016

          With 25th,(412) 29th,(262) and 32nd(129) ranked drafts respectively from 2014 - 2016, that puts Buffalo at the bottom with a 3 year total of 803 points. The Bills are 210 points below the next worse team, Los Angeles Chargers. That gap is equivalent to two solid above average draft picks. That's a lot of ground to make up just to get out of last place.

          Meanwhile, Minnesota and Atlanta keep churning out good draft after good draft. Dallas and Chicago are keeping pace with two great drafts and a middle of the road draft.

          The Buccs however aren't fairing as well as I originally thought. Posting 24th, 4th and 27th place finishes respectively. As mentioned in the previous two installments, these rankings are fluid for eight years. That doesn't bode well for Tampa's chances of bouncing back. As of the time I type this, Jameis Winston and Vernon Hargreaves III are no longer on the team. Therefore will no longer generate points.

*an explanation of the points has been explained in Part I.

New England - 405
Miami - 417
N.Y. Jets - 527
Buffalo - 129

Baltimore - 551
Pittsburgh - 387
Cleveland - 553
Cincinnati - 592

Indianapolis - 506
Jacksonville - 396
Tennessee - 735
Houston - 393

Kansas City - 464
Las Vegas - 335
Los Angeles - 469
Denver - 663

Philadelphia - 541
N.Y. Giants - 337
Dallas - 761
Washington - 218

Green Bay - 557
Minnesota - 506
Chicago - 693
Detroit - 618

New Orleans - 481
Tampa Bay - 319
Carolina - 253
Atlanta - 564

Seattle - 539
San Fransisco - 283
Arizona - 137
Los Angeles - 403

2014 - 2016 Rankings
1. Minnesota - 1934
2. Chicago - 1904
3. Atlanta - 1892
4. Dallas - 1887
5. Jacksonville - 1877
6. Green Bay - 1804
7. L.A. Rams - 1795
8. Las Vegas - 1752
9. Tennessee - 1722
10. Kansas City - 1706
11. Denver - 1690
12. Houston - 1662
13. Baltimore - 1644
14. Cincinnati - 1622
15. Miami - 1519
16. Detroit - 1487
17. Cleveland - 1451
18. San Fransisco - 1428
19. Pittsburgh - 1409
20. Tampa Bay - 1382
21. New England - 1353
22. Washington - 1334
23. Carolina - 1305
24. N.Y. Giants - 1253
25. Seattle - 1212
26. Arizona - 1166
27. Philadelphia - 1159
28. Indianapolis - 1101
29. New Orleans - 1082
29. N.Y. Jets - 1082
31. L.A. Chargers - 1013
32. Buffalo - 803

Draft Successes and Failures: Diving Into the Numbers Part 2-2015

 

   
          The J-E-T-S put together back-to-back bad drafts in 2014 and 2015. After having placed 29th in 2014, they followed that up with a 32nd place finish in 2015, also putting them in 32nd place for 2014/2015 combined rankings. Minnesota and the L.A. Rams put together two good drafts in a row, while New England rebounded from a bad 2014 to 3rd in 2015.

*an explanation of the scoring is laid out in Part 1.

3. New England - 634
17. Miami - 471
32. New York - 242
30. Buffalo - 262

15. Baltimore - 488
16. Pittsburgh - 480
20. Cleveland - 433
14. Cincinnati - 491

26. Indianapolis - 354
11. Jacksonville - 529
29. Tennessee -  294
22. Houston - 396

5. Kansas City - 599
21. Las Vegas - 398
10. Los Angeles - 544
19. Denver - 441

31. Philadelphia - 248
25. New York - 370
18. Dallas - 464
13. Washington - 504

24. Green Bay - 378
1. Minnesota - 813
23. Chicago - 378
27. Detroit - 346

12. New Orleans - 527
4. Tampa Bay - 616
7. Carolina - 557
6. Atlanta - 589

28. Seattle - 303
9. San Fransisco - 548
8. Arizona - 551
2. Los Angeles - 662

2014/2015
1. Jacksonville - 1481
2. Minnesota - 1428
3. Las Vegas - 1417
4. L.A. Rams - 1392
5. Atlanta - 1328
6. Houston - 1269
7. Green Bay - 1247
8. Kansas City - 1242
9. Chicago - 1211
10. San Fransisco - 1145
11. Dallas - 1126
12. Washington - 1116
13. Miami - 1102
14. Baltimore - 1093
15. Tampa Bay - 1063
16. Carolina - 1052
17. Cincinnati - 1030
18. Arizona - 1029
19. Denver - 1027
20. Pittsburgh - 1022
21. Tennessee - 987
22. New England - 948
23. N.Y. Giants - 916
24. Cleveland - 898
25. Detroit - 869
26. L.A. Chargers - 740
27. Buffalo - 674
28. Seattle - 673
29. Philadelphia - 618
30. New Orleans - 601
31. Indianapolis - 595
32. N.Y. Jets - 555

Draft Successes and Failures: Diving Into the Numbers Part 1-2014

           In this entry I will layout the results of an analytical look into each team's past drafts. I started with 2014, because originally my intention was to see how Jason Licht compared with his peers. This undertaking is much bigger than I anticipated, and has somewhat become an obsession. It has taken six days to compile data just for the years 2014 and 2015. I intend to take this up to the current draft, backtrack to 2002, then update future drafts.

          With that said, these results will be fluid for eight seasons. The model I have created assigns points to draft picks for games, games started and longevity with their drafted team. A draft pick is given points based on years of service with the team that drafted them. The amount of points is dependent upon which round they were selected. A high draft pick can be assigned negative points for flaming out early in their career, or for being a total bust. Late round draft picks can be given bonus points for being productive longer than average late rounders historically are. Draft picks also receive a small amount of bonus points for Pro Bowls, All-Pro and a 50 point bonus for League MVP

          I will list each team's yearly scores, and their running totals in future installments. As stated above, these results are fluid for eight seasons. Meaning that after the 2020 NFL season, New England's and Miami's 2014 scores will no longer be 314 and 631.

          Las Vegas and Jacksonville blew away the others with their 2014 draft scores of 1019 and 952 respectively. New Orleans, who has been a good drafting team, just totally screwed the pooch in 2014 with a miserable score of 74. Scrolling down to the bottom will give you the rankings.

2014
New England - 314
Miami - 631
New York Jets - 313
Buffalo - 412

Baltimore - 605
Pittsburgh - 542
Cleveland - 465
Cincinnati - 539

Indianapolis - 241
Jacksonville - 952
Tennessee - 693
Houston - 873

Kansas City - 643
Las Vegas - 1019
Los Angeles - 196
Denver - 586

Philadelphia - 370
New York - 546
Dallas - 662
Washington - 612

Green Bay - 869
Minnesota - 615
Chicago - 833
Detroit - 523

Tampa Bay - 452
New Orleans - 74
Carolina - 495
Atlanta - 739

Seattle - 370
San Fransisco - 597
Arizona - 478
Los Angeles - 730

1. Las Vegas- 1019
2. Jacksonville - 952
3. Houston - 873
4. Green Bay - 869
5. Chicago - 833
6. Atlanta - 739
7. L.A. Rams - 730
8. Tennessee - 693
9. Dallas - 662
10. Kansas City - 643
11. Miami - 631
12. Minnesota - 615
13. Washington - 612
14. Baltimore - 605
15. San Fransisco - 597
16. Denver - 586
17. N.Y. Giants - 546
18. Pittsburgh - 542
19. Cincinnati - 539
20. Detroit - 523
21. Carolina - 495
22. Arizona - 478
23. Cleveland - 465
24. Tampa Bay - 452
25. Buffalo - 412
26. Philadelphia - 370
26. Seattle - 370
28. New England - 314
29. N.Y. Jets - 313
30. Indianapolis - 241
31. L.A. Chargers - 196
32. New Orleans - 74

Do Some Fans give Licht a Bad Rap?

          Recently NFL Network aired a piece on the topic of NFL GM draft trends. With that information I've compiled a list of the current GM's success in the draft as it relates to the total number of players they have drafted during their tenure, and how many of those players were pro bowlers.

          I was surprised to see where Jason Licht fell on this list, because of continuous rhetoric and whining by some Buccs fans in forums. There have been calls to fire Licht for a few years now, of which I personally have disagreed with. Has Jason missed on some picks? Yes. Has Jason made some terrible picks? Yes. All GMs do, and at a pretty comparable frequency, outside of a handful at the ends of the spectrum. Unfortunately many fans are crippled with proximity bias when assessing their favorite team, because the closeness of attention they pay to said team. Sure we as fans hear about other teams' great draft successes and their great draft busts, but the difference lies in those teams' under the radar draftees we don't hear about.

          The positively natured fan will over praise their GM's body of work, and the angry, negatively natured fan will call for their GM's head with every move made that doesn't produce a Hall of Famer. The goal of every GM is to achieve 10% pro bowlers of the players they've drafted. Jason Licht falls in the top ⅓ of the GM's in the League, which in my opinion is pretty good.

The list below is comprised of current GM's with more than one draft during their tenure.

      GM                            Team   Plyrs     PB'rs    %
1. Ryan Pace-                Chi         32         5        15.6
2. Mickey Loomis-       N.O.       115       17      14.8
3. Thomas Dimitroff-  Atl          87        12       14.0
4. Rick Spielman-         Min       120       16      13.3
5. Jerry Jones-               Dal        279       36      13.0
6. Kevin Colbert-          Pit         161       19       11.8
7. David Caldwell-        Jax         53        6        11.3
8. Tom Telesco-            LA C       46        5         10.9
9. Marty Hurney- Car(2 stints) 105      11      10.5
10. John Schneider-     Sea         97        10      9.7
11. Jason Licht-            Tam        42        4        9.5
12a. Dave Gettleman- NYG/Car 44       3         9.1
12b. Bill Belichik-         N.E.       176      16       9.1
14. Brett Veach-            K.C.        12        1         8.3
15. Howie Roseman-   Phi         80        6         7.5
16. John Lynch-            S.F.         27       2         7.4
17. Les Snead-              LA R       70       5         7.1
18a. Chris Ballard-       Ind         29       2         6.9
18b. Jon Robinson-      Ten         29       2         6.9
20. Bruce Allen-           Was        88       6         6.8
21. Bill O'Brien-            Tex        45        3         6.7
22a. Mike Brown-        Cle        258      16        6.2
22b. Brandon Bean-    Buf        16        1         6.2
24. Steve Keim-            Ari         53        3         5.7
25. Chris Grier-            Mia        29       1*        3.0*
26. Bob Quinn-             Det        34        1         2.9
27. John Elway-            Den       61       1         1.6
28. Brian Gutekunst-   G.B.       19       0         0.0

*Grier drafted 2 players who earned pro bowls after he traded them away. If you include those, 3 players for 10.3%

The Past Is A Matter of Perspective

          Well folks, it has been a very long time since I've thrown some letters together to make words, and some words together to create sentences here on this blog. Life changes, responsibility changes, workload changes and everyone's most hated change.....less spare time for fun things has unfortunately been the reason for not partaking in this hobby. Thanks to the Corona Virus sweeping the planet and Social Distancing guidelines, most people have a little more spare time on their hands, and that includes me. So let's see give it a shot.

          Buccaneer fans are a fickle bunch, a polarized bunch, a divided bunch. No matter what the topic at hand, Buccaneer fans are usually split down the middle, feverishly arguing with their fellow fans. It doesn't matter what the topic at hand is, you can guarantee the fanbase will be split. I've never been a fan of another team, so I've never had the experience of discussing topics of a shared love with any other fan base. With my having been born and raised in Rhode Island for 31 years, then relocating to Kansas City, MO a little more than 16 years ago, I have the experience of being an outside observer of two different fanbases. I can tell you one thing for sure, I've never noticed division or infighting about almost every single topic about their teams from Patriot and Chiefs fans. Certainly not like Buccaneer fans.

          So that brings me to the point of this blog entry. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers existence has two distinctly separate eras. First was 1976 through 1996 when the team donned creamsicle(Florida orange) and red, with the winking pirate Bucco Bruce on the sides of the helmet. That was followed by 1997 through present time for which the team has been colored in pewter and red, with a pirate attack flag on the sides of the helmet. Argument topics come and go. They usually pertain to a player on the roster, a draft selection, a coach, a general manager and even the ownership. They may stem from offensive or defensive scheme, offensive or defensive play calls, or when and when not to call a time out. However, the longest lasting argument is and will always be creamsicle and red vs. pewter and red.

          Some fans love and respect the old uniforms and logo. Its sentimental value tugs on their heart strings. It brings up powerful feelings of joy when the Tampa Bay area was selected as one of the new homes for an NFL franchise. It reminds them of their childhood and their young innocence watching their new found heroes play the game of football. For some it's respect like the adage and Maya Angelo quote, "You can't really know where you are going until you know where you have been." Respect and understanding for the past are paramount throughout most walks of life.

          Some fans despise the old threads and winking pirate because it brings back feelings of sadness. It brings back memories of losing, of 0-26, brown paper bags, the Yucs and Johnny Carson's almost nightly  insults of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Those colors and logo for this group of fans reminds them of the harrassment they received from other teams' fans. The harrassment and insults Buccs players received from players on other teams' rosters. They want to forget those memories and feelings, but they can't. They hate that they can't forget, therefore they hate what reminds them.

          For me personally when I see the old uniforms it reminds me of how this little boy from Rhode Island fell in love with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. My paren......errrrrrr Santa Claus brought me an NFL dartboard with velcro darts. Around the perimeter of this dart board were the helmets from all the NFL teams. As you can imagine being from the northeast, the Buccs were hardly ever on TV. That one Sunday though,  when my little brother and I were wrestling around in the living room while the TV was on and I looked up. There they were, playing at the J-E-T-S. I yelled out, "the team with the wicked awesome helmets!" I was hooked for life. No pirate pun intended. On an unrelated side note, with brothers sometimes being competitive, obviously my brother was rooting for "the green team," only because big brother was rooting for the other team. To this day, my little brother is still a J-E-T-S fan.

The biggest reason why I look at the past uniforms with favor is because it reminds me of how the Tampa Bay Buccaneers accomplished something that has never been or will ever be done. You see, a lot of people don't realize what a horrible position the Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks were put in when they entered the league as expansion teams. The rules are very different now for expansion teams. Current NFL teams protect 5 players on their rosters, and expansion teams can pluck whomever they want from any team that is not protected. Expansion teams also have the luxury of Free Agency which didn't exist in 1976. The Buccs roster at that time was made up of a bunch of players nobody else wanted on their teams, and it showed on the field as evidenced by their 0-26 start. Their truly amazing and miraculous turnaround is what gives me pride in those old uniforms and Bucco Bruce. From the day the Buccs broke their 0-26 streak of ineptness, it only took them just 34 games to go from the laughing stock of the world, to coming within one game of the Holy Grail that is playing in the Super Bowl. The same team just 34 games previously, that couldn't get out of their own way was 9 points from playing the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Super Bowl, when they held the Los Angeles Rams without a touchdown in the NFC Championship game. The LA Rams could only muster 3 field goals against the team that not too long before that, was mostly made up of men who wouldn't have been NFL players had the NFL not expanded to 28 teams. That is what I think of, and the joy that comes with it when I see the creamsicle uniforms and Bucco Bruce.

The Good, The Bad & The Ugly: Browns

Running smooth

The Good - Carnell Williams looked good today. His opportunities were limited with some very suspect blocking by the O-line today. The O-line is supposed to be a strength of this team that is littered with high draft picks. When the holes were there for Caddy to run through, he showed great burst, good speed and was decisive with his running. He ran tough putting his head and shoulders into each approaching tackler and picked up nice chunks of yards. His stat line looks small through no fault of his own.

The Bad - This one isn't necessarily about this game, but it certainly had an effect. Raheem Morris' decision to limit the starters playing time in the pre season was definitely a reason for today's sloppy and somewhat indecisive looking play by the team. This team is following through with it's plan to rebuild through the draft and go young, therefore the experience level on this team is at an all time low. These young players need every snap of experience they can get, and I feel limiting their preparation time this pre season was very detrimental. They looked very rusty and started off the game extremely sluggish.
I really don't know what the strategy could have been to go for it on 4th and 1 from the 2 yard line at the end of the game? Sure a Cleveland Browns TD could still have won the game for them, but it would have forced them to have to go for the TD and drive the length of the field with very little time left on the clock. Phil Dawson is an excellent Kicker who has very good distance, and gave the Browns and easy opprotunity to take that game into OT.

The Ugly - First let me say I am ecstatic about today's win. I couldn't be much happier, but the game today left something to be desired. There was a lot of ugly out there today, hence  they won ugly. The blocking was not very good, passing or rushing. The defensive pass rush was non-existent. I am not expecting miracles from our two young DT's as I know even Sapp took three seasons to break out. However, I thought there would be much more pressure even if it didn't end up in the form of sacks. Some plays it seemed like Delhomme had all day to pass. He was able to step up at will and move around to bide extra time. The tackling by the secondary was ugly, and the angles taken by the Safeties cost them big plays a couple times. Lastly, it's obvious Josh's thumb is not close to 100% healthy. His passes were weak, off their mark and fluttered like ducks. He was effective on some passes and extremely ineffective on others. He missed a wide open Mike Williams for a sure TD late in the game to take the lead, and then came right back and threw a beautiful pass hitting Spurlock in stride for the go ahead score. We didn't know what type of pass was coming until it left Josh's hand. The biggest problem facing the coaching staff is whether to just let the thumb heal or let this drag out? I'd be willing to give Johnson a shot under Center against the Panthers if Freeman comes out in game 2 looking shaky. Lastly, I wasn't thrilled with the play calling. I'm not going to bash Olsen by any means, but I was left scratching my head a few times. Caddy's first couple runs between the tackles netted great results. After getting shut down on a few sweeps and runs outside I thought Greg would go back to calling run plays between the tackles. He kept with it for longer than I thought and we were getting run down for no gains. I think those quick strike passes to the WR behind the line of scrimmage were extremely risky with Freeman's current thumb situation.

Go Buccs!!!
ABuccsFan/JJC 

NavyBuc93! Knowledgeable Bucc Fan or Village Idiot?

NavyDunce93

I frequent the PewterReport.com message boards for new and exciting info, breaking news, insight from other Buccaneer fans and occasional humor. Sometimes reading forum blabber by some fans is as good entertainment as going to an Adam Sandler or Jim Carey movie, and best of all it's free. Sure I wouldn't mind having an ice cold Pepsi and some nachos smother with cheese and jalapenos to go along with my comedy show but I'll take what I can get.

One forum poster who goes by the name NavyBuc93 is a barrel of laughs. Everybody, including myself has made the occasional blunder, borked on a bad prediction, wasn't 100%  accurate about a league rule, or propped up a player who later failed. NavyBuc however takes the cake. Every player that is released he wants the Buccs to sign. Every player who's name he has heard uttered by Mel Kiper or Mike Mayock he wants the Buccs to draft. If you go to his PewterReport statistics page you will see his "Most Popular Boards By Activity" is the Fantasy Football Board. So I guess it make a little sense that he thinks the real NFL GM's wheel and deal like him and his pals do for 13 weeks a year.

Navy was beating his drum loud and clear, louder than most, that he thought Mark Dominik needed to trade Derrick Ward and Mike Clayton. Well, any Buccaneer fan with a half of a brain didn't want Ward or Clayton on the roster any longer than they needed to be. However fans with half of a brain knew that no one, not one team in the NFL was going to offer anything to the Buccs for the underachieving Ward or Clayton and their big contracts. Once more knowledgeable fans finally beat that notion into NavyBuc's head post after post after post, he switched his mantra to call for Dominik to "cut these bum's today." It didn't matter that the Buccs had dozens of training camp practices and multiple pre season games left, by GOD NavyBuc93 wanted those guys gone now. I guess the thought never crossed his mind that Williams, Stroughter and Stovall each could have potentially landed on IR or with a long term injury? Did it ever cross Navy's mind that Carnell Williams is one of the most injury prone Halfbacks in the NFL? What precluded Huggins from the ill fate of a pre season game injury? The dumbest thing any GM could do is cut a serviceable player before he absolutely needs to. I can see NacyBuc going out on his dingy without his compass because after all, he's just going for a small boat ride. Then the storm rolls in and takes him out to sea. Next thing you know thousands of Federal dollars are being wasted while Coast Guard Search and Rescue helicopters do a grid search of the ocean. Be prepared Navy, be prepared. Weren't you a Boyscout?

Today though I had to laugh the most. Today was a double feature, he gave us two shows back to back. First he rips off this gem;
"What is the hold up?"
"It kind of bothers me that Dominik and Morris have yet to attack the Waiver wire. I know they cannot be happy with holding 7 WRs and 5 Safetys. That is 2 spots that can be devoted towards the OL or another DE. I personally want to see us go after some OL depth and it just is highly bothering that this team is satisfied with total utter putrid crap that is Hardman and James Lee. I mean you got so much better talent out there and you are rolling with these guys? I was hoping we would hit the waiver wire hard this off-season. By this time I am sure all those guys cleared waivers and will be Practice Squad material. Will someone explain why we cant get 2 starting caliber guys (Seth Olsen and Donald Thomas) on our roster for depth?

I just hope it is soon because guys I would like to see be gone for talent are Reggie Brown, Sabby Pisctielli, John Gilmore, Derek Hardman, and James Lee, and Erik Lorig. 6 people that can open up spots for some real NFL talent."
There is an easy answer for this one NavyBuc93, it's called The Rules.

Later in the day he dazzles us with his dissatisfaction once again as to how a real GM does his job. I mean hell, if Packer Smackers wanted to offer a trade to L'il Benji's Boys, all he'd have to do is go to the trade page on his Fantasy site and offer Derek Anderson and Ronnie Brown for Peyton Manning. That's a fair trade right? Two for one always makes it even when someone wants your franchise players....LMAO. Today Mark Dominik had NavyBuc steaming though, smoke could be seem coming from his ears like an old Tom and Jerry cartoon. Cut Smith? A ProBowl returner, are you serious? This is an OUTRAGE!!
If he was released to make room for this Lumpkin guy I will really be pissed. Smith is a Pro Bowl returner. He should have been traded if it was possible
You do know Trent Dilfer was a ProBowler once right? Being named to a ProBowl doesn't give you an automatic bid for the Hall of Fame my friend. Was a trade possible you want to know? That is a matter of semantics. (Navy, click this link if you need know what semantics means) OK, so I do know that Navy knows that all 32 teams had a deadline yesterday to get their rosters down to 53 players. But today NavyBuc93 demands to know why Smith wasn't traded to make room for Larsen. There goes another one of those damn pesky rules Goodell has in place just to screw the Buccs. Why can't the Buccs just have 54 players for a little while until they can trade Smith? What's wrong with that huh Navy?

I know, Dominik should have sent out a League wide email;

Dear Other 31 GM's,

I want to claim Larsen off waivers from the Patriots. But I have this fan who goes by the moniker NavyBuc93, and he is really going to be mad at me if I don't try and trade Clifton Smith. Can you guys please, please, please not sign Larsen off waivers so I can find a team to trade Clif to? If you guys do me this favor, I'll get you all VIP passes to Mons Venus next time the SuperBowl is in town.

Sincerely,
 Mark Dominik

Go Buccs!!!
ABuccsFan/JJC